What is xG in football?
xG, or expected goals, is the probability that a shot becomes a goal, based on thousands of similar past shots, judged on things like distance, angle, and type of chance. A penalty is worth roughly three in four in most models. Adding up a player's xG shows how many goals his chances would usually produce.
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How it works
Each shot gets a value between 0 and 1. A tap-in from a yard out might be 0.9; a shot from 30 metres might be 0.03. A player's xG is the sum of his shots' values. Models differ between data providers, so the same shot can have slightly different values.
What it tells you
- Whether a striker gets into good positions: high xG means good chances.
- Whether he is finishing above or below expectation: goals minus xG.
- Whether a team creates more than it concedes, beyond the scoreline.
Related measures
- xA, expected assists: the xG of the shots a player's passes create.
- Non-penalty xG: xG without penalties, which flatter whoever takes them.
Its limits
xG only covers shots taken, not the chances a player missed by a yard. Over a short spell, goals and xG can differ a lot by chance. And many lower leagues have no detailed event data, so there is no xG at all.
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Questions people also ask
Is scoring more than your xG good?
Over a long period it can show a good finisher. Over a few months it is often luck that evens out.
Do lower leagues have xG data?
Some do. Coverage depends on the data provider, and many lower divisions have none.